Early Early Early Prediction

The Sunday NYT listed the states that both Obama and McCain are going to be focusing on in November. Granted, it's very early for anyone to make predictions for November. I thought it would be interesting to make some very early guesses based on my premonition of what November will look like. I'm sure things will change by the time we get there (especially since the VP picks will likely have some impact), but here are my predictions as of right now:

Solid McCain:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
North Carolina
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
West Virginia
Wyoming

Solid States: 23
Solid Electoral Votes:189

Solid Obama:

California
Connecticut
Delaware
D.C.
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Solid States:17 (including the district)
Solid Electoral Votes: 231


Key Toss-Up States:

Colorado- Obama (The state has rapidly shifted to the left. This year should bring about a Democratic senator and 9 e.v. to Obama)
Florida- McCain (Obama's been having serious problems with the 65+ crowd. If you want the converse opinion that McCain may have more problems than Obama: The Stump)
Iowa- Obama (His work for the caucus has laid the groundwork for a victory in November)
Minnesota- Obama (Has been Democratic as of late, will remain so in 08')
Missouri-Obama (No President since Eisenhower has won the electoral college without winning Missouri. Missouri's demographics mirror the countries. Look for Obama to repeat his primary squeaker)
Nevada-McCain (the Hispanic vote in Nevada is likely to tip this very close scale to McCain)
New Hampshire-McCain (John McCain's Iowa)
New Mexico-Obama (Democratic year in both the Senate and for Obama)
Ohio-Obama (This is really the one state that could go either way. Look for the economy to be the major issue here, and thus a break to the democrats)
Oregon-Obama (Generally a democratic state; will stay one in November)
Virginia-Obama (Slowly has been moving to the democrats. Look for a big turnout for Warner and for Obama)

Toss-Up States: 11
Electoral Votes up for Grabs: 118

Totals:
McCain: 225 (26 total states)
Obama: 313 (25 total states including DC)


My Predictions in map form:

Map: Created with:USElectionatlas.org


--------------
Take this for what it's worth. If I'm right though, there will be no living with me. It is interesting to note, that if you switch Ohio into the McCain column, Obama still wins without winning either Ohio or Florida...

Back to studying....


-JRo